The home remodeling market continues to improve, with strong gains expected for the remainder of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released today by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. While the LIRA continues to project annual improvement spending increasing at a double-digit pace in the near term, a slowdown of this growth can be expected by the middle of 2014.
“The soft patch that we’ve seen in recent months in homebuilding, coupled with rising financing costs are expected to be reflected as slower growth in home improvement spending beginning around the middle of next year,” says Eric S. Belsky, managing director of the Joint Center. “However, even with this projected slowdown, remodeling activity should remain at healthy levels.”
“In the near term, homeowner spending on improvements is expected to see its strongest growth since the height of the housing boom,” says Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center. “Existing home sales are still growing at a double-digit pace, and rising house prices are helping homeowners rebuild equity lost during the housing crash.”
The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) is designed to estimate national homeowner spending on improvements for the current quarter and subsequent three quarters. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of- change of its components, provides a short-term outlook of homeowner remodeling activity and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement industry. The development of the LIRA is detailed in “Developing a Leading Indicator for the Remodeling Industry” (JCHS Research Note N07-1). In July 2008, the LIRA was re-benchmarked due to changes in the underlying reference series. These changes are explained in “Addendum to Research Note N07-1: Re-Benchmarking the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity” (JCHS Research Note N08-1). The LIRA is released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University in the third week after each quarter’s closing. The next LIRA release date is January 16, 2014.
