Remodeling Growth to Slow Sharply in Early 2027

Annual spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes is projected to slow sharply in early 2027, according to the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

The LIRA projects year-over-year growth in home renovation and repair spending of just 0.5% by the first quarter of 2027—a pace that remains positive in nominal terms but is less than overall inflation.

“Growth in remodeling permits and retail spending on building products has been flat recently, signaling stagnant interest in home improvement,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, director of the Remodeling Futures Program. “Even so, homeowners are expected to maintain spending at roughly last year’s levels, with total improvement and repair expenditures edging up modestly to $523 billion in early 2027.”

Chris Herbert, managing director of the Center, notes that remodeling follows the overall housing market. “Without a sustained rebound in construction, we’re likely to see remodeling spending remain in this low-growth range for the near future.”

The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, calculated from the annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annualized spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.