A Human Face on Data
I love data. it’s not only the numbers but also the stories those numbers tell.
Consider Ignaz Semmelweis. He was an obstetric doctor In the 1840s who noticed a strange thing. Women who gave birth in a maternity ward staffed by doctors were five times more likely to die from infection than those in a ward with midwives.
Why was this the case? Semmelweis looked at the differences between the two wards and started eliminating variables. Women delivered on their backs with the doctors, and on their sides with the midwives. Could that account for the infection rate? He tested, but found no difference. In the doctors’ ward priests would walk by and ring a bell when someone was dying. Could that be scaring the women and causing illness? Semmelweis changed the priests’ routine but to no avail.
He finally figured out that the doctors were performing autopsies—sometimes shortly before attending a birth—while the midwives had no contact with corpses. This was before the discovery of germs, but Semmelweis theorized that tiny bits of “cadaveric matter” were being transferred from the corpses to the women via the doctor’s hands. His solution? Wash your hands before delivering a baby. It worked.
Semmelweis looked at the data, eliminated stories that weren’t true, and got to the correct one. I find that so inspiring.
While the stakes may not be quite as high, I’m also inspired by our annual Thought Leaders Predictions issue. Every year we survey leaders of large or influential companies about what they are seeing out there, and how they plan to achieve growth. As always, the numbers tell an interesting story and the more I dug into it, the more interesting that story became.
For starters, there’s how much growth, on average, companies are predicting for 2025. The number is a modest 10.8% for design build firms, and 18.7% on the home improvement side. Amazingly, this is identical to last years’ projected growth rates.
The ways that these companies plan on achieving growth is interesting as well. In 2024, 43% of design build thought leaders reported adding new verticals to grow, but in 2025 that number dropped all the way down to 17%. This year, instead, of expanding into other segments, these companies will add more projects and invest in marketing efforts. That tells a story about what the industry is thinking. There’s a drive to increase capacity and grab market share rather than expand offerings, raise prices, or grow job size.
On the home improvement side, the picture is quite different. When asked how they plan to grow in 2025, 19% responded they would invest in AI, with a number of larger firms planning to develop propriety technology. This is especially meaningful considering the survey was multiple choice, and “Invest in AI” wasn’t one of the options. That 19% came from write-in responses, meaning the actual number is probably much higher.
Taken together, this data is a great way to start out the year. Enjoy!
